Posted Apr 22, 2008 at 01:49PM by Isaac C. Listed in: Games, Opinions & Analysis Tags: GameStop, NPD Group, NPD, Arvind Bhatia
Ó

Analyst- Goldman Sachs- Analyst says Video Game Sales Have Peaked - Image 1


It's still early in the year but we've already seen several heavyweight video game titles released; Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Guitar Hero 3: Legends of Rock being two examples. The NPD Group reports say that hardware and software sales are going up, up, up.

Analyst Robert Higginbotham however, remains pessimistic. He points out that the only big titles left for this year are Grand Theft Auto IV and Wii Fit, which are due out in April and May respectively. After those months, "the remainder of the year lacks any big releases."

The problem is only aggravated by the fact that future titles have it tough because games like Halo 3 are still fresh in gamers' minds and comparisons are bound to arise. As a result, he predicts that the video game industry will experience a slump later this year.

Some analysts, however, disagree. Analyst Arvind Bhatia notes that GameStop continues to "outpace industry growth and gaining market share" and that "it increasingly appears the current video-game cycle could be longer and stronger than the most recent one."

[Via MarketWatch] Permalink  |   Email this  |   Linking Blogs   |   Digg It!

Bookmark / Find this article on:


25 Comments


Sort by:
   by Advertising -
   by Youkosnake - 2008-04-22
 » PS3.

After those, PS3 will save the day with MGS4 and whatnot.

   by Ulqui0rra - 2008-04-22
 » wth?

what about final fantasy 13?????
what about us!!!
what about silent hill ???
what about us!!!
what about residen evil 5???
what about us!!!
and metal gear ????
*spins and a moonwalks*
:P


   Re: Kingofdaberbz - 2008-04-22
 » lol

FF13 launches in 2009. Silent Hill? please. RE5 2009.
MGS it sell pretty good,but it won't sell on the level of GTA4,Wii fit or Halo 3. It'll some a a few million copies though. Honestly even Gears 2 don't belong on the list either that'll sell a few million as well,but I can't imagine another game besides the ones mentioned in the article that could sell 8+ million copies. There will be PLENTY of AAA titles,but these games will be the highest sellers of the year.

   Re: Ludikhris - 2008-04-22
 » you're forgetting something

There are still plenty of "good" games coming out.

This analyst is saying that because we have experienced a few games that sold 30 units game sales will slump because nothing can even sell 25 units in the coming months. What he is forgetting is that 10 + 10 +10 + 10 is 40 which is better than 40.

The idea that people won't buy B+ games because they bought A level games 6 months ago and there is currently one out is preposterous. Decent games will still sell decently and result in average games sales over the year. This guy needs a new profession.

   Re: scarface_tha_second - 2008-04-23
 » haha 8 million copies?

how many *****ing games a year sell 8 million copies that you are saying this year is bad cuz there wont be many? There will be two thats more than *****ing enough.
   by damonous - 2008-04-22
 » Anal-analyzing Analysts

Let's see: Midnight Club, MGS4, Motorstorm 2, LittleBigPlanet, Resistance 2, Killzone 2, ... and those are just PS3 titles I'm aware of. I think whomever is paying these analysts to "work" is paying them far too much. ;-)

   by McAwesome - 2008-04-22
 » umm..

SOCOM Confrontation... duh.

   by B - 2008-04-22
 » really?

Do these analysts even do any research before they blurt out stuff? I wish I could get paid for just saying the first thing that came to mind and calling it a 'prediction.'

   by MADMAN-_-zZ - 2008-04-22
 » wow

man these "analysts" suck, they always come up with some crap like the obvious or just stuff completely stupid and wrong, who calls them analysts? do they consider themselves professionals? and is he saying that the wiifit is bigger and more exciting then MGS4, FFXIII, Killzone 2, LBP, RE5.....

   by Alistar - 2008-04-22
 » Hmm

What ever happened to Tekken 6? :(


   Re: na2rul - 2008-04-22
 » hmm

good Q
   by Woden501 - 2008-04-22
 » No...

How can they say this. Just looking at the Metal Gear online clusterf*ck shows that there are an insane amount of people who can't wait for that game. Then there's also going to be games like Gears of War 2, Starcraft 2 (hehe... okay probably 2009 knowing Blizzard, but I can hope can't I?), Fallout 3, and all the others mentioned above. The things these analysts haven't analyzed are the gamers. We have an insatiable appetite for a distraction from our everyday lives, and will always buy another game. You can only play a game for so long before you start bore of it (Yes even Call of Duty 4 can get boring).

What we need is an analyst that actually participates in the action or business that he is analyzing.


   Re: MADMAN-_-zZ - 2008-04-22
 » mmm

I agree with you... CoD4 is getting boring :P and yeh these analysts are looking at this from a business point of view and they probably look at the statistics they have like pre-order numbers, GTAIV is nearly out with one week to go but big games coming out later in the year I won't preorder till its much closer to the release and I know a certain date for it to come out, all the people that i know who own a PS3 are buying MGS4 on release and none of them but me have pre-ordered it yet cause they are lazy bastards, I think MGS4 will sell crazy on release, all the EB's in australia are pre-ordered out of LE mgs4's 3 months before they put it on the shelf as "coming soon" so I had to get my copy from JB
   by ZenoGia - 2008-04-22
 » Newest idea!

I think the newest and greatest idea from Nintendo will be the new "Wii Sleep"! Comes with a colorful blanket.

   by [DVSDevise] - 2008-04-22
 » ...

Really, only MGS4 and Gears Of War 2 are the 2 big titles left in the year. I understand people are calling out other titles, but they are the 2 that will sell 5 million+.

   by ArcaneView - 2008-04-22
 » Well

Actually, I'm with the analysts. I mean what Triple-A game is coming out?

See Triple-A is more than just what is "anticipated" to be a big hit, you have to put your money where your mouth is... GameStop, Toysrus Best Buy, Circuit City, Walmart, and whoever else that's out there take reserves - these reserves translate to an "anticipated allocation requirement" that gets sent out to the publisher and then is made public for NPD and other analytical companies to see. So when you're asked "do you want to reserve (blank)" you're not only securing a purchase but you're helping the game out on these reports. I think web orders are part of the report too.

So although Metal Gear will be big for PS3 owners, my friend who runs the GameStop store said that he has more reserves for God of War 3 than Metal Gear Solid 4 right now (and if you don't know, the GoW3 comes out in March 09)... He said that Midnight club is getting NO reserves. Final Fantasy 13 nor Resident Evil 5 hasn't even been confirmed for this year and Killzone 2 is laughable since he has more reserves for Hannah Montana 3 than it! He also said Socom isn't coming out there year because they are having a lot of server issues (like they're having with MGO stability and security).... Let's face it, everything is coming our around Xmas again.... I thought we were straying away from this way of thinking...

I know there are good games coming but we're talking Triple-A high reserves here. January was dead. February was dead. March was baseball and Smash Bros. April is GTA IV and Mario Kart. Next month is Wii Fit.... June is Soul Calibur??? I'd say Battlefield but it won't topple Call of Duty 4 so no... Metal Gear has a chance, they just need to get media coverage, we don't care about the art involved, tell us why we need to play it... Okay so July.... Nevermind. August? Too Human? Not enough media coverage, It's going to be as good as Diablo but they made a mistake in calling it "Diablo meets Geometry Wars" because people aren't going to buy it if they think the controls are wacky (even though they probably won't be)... September? Big month! Star Wars and a handful of others...

So all that the analysts are trying to say is that it's going to be 3 months of dry gaming if publishers don't market their games properly, they will ALL fail.

What needs to happen (and I don't expect you to agree) is this: Microsoft needs a price drop (Pro to $300, Arcade $250, Elite $400), Sony needs to re-release the 80 Gb and increase computability with PS2 titles, and Nintendo need to increase production of the Wii to finally stimulate the gaming market and "get it over with" since they can't hold out 8 more months for Xmas to do so...

As far as developers: get your project ready now and not wait for Xmas either, get your trailers to look pretty not pretty sloppy, and release more details (because we all want to know if we're going to see Superman's spine during a subzero fatality in MK vs. DC)....

Alright, flame and troll away, I've said my piece.


   Re: Fujin - 2008-04-22
 » No flame and troll

Good points but it all depends on the demograpics of your area... Down where I live my brother is the manager at a Gamestop and hes telling me that MGS4 preorders are doing great with the beta package and what not, but keep in mind again, we don't need to see AAA games in order for the market to continue its upward momentum. Also the whole thing with the price drops on new consoles? The prices now are fair, keep in mind that the US dollar has been falling steadly since 2001 (and more so since 2006) that is a major factor for the high costs of these gaming consoles because when Xbox, sony, or nintendo have to do currency exchanges in order to build these machines they are loosing money to the currency rates and commission rates to make those exchanges... Believe me the money that these companies are investing into creating, paying, and finally getting a finished product is not just production and creation cost, there is a lot more involved than just that... I'm one of those "analyst" mentioned in the artical, but many of the ones releasing those kind of statements are not gamers themselves so they can't completely understand or grasp how big of a potential the gaming industry is... Just look at the growth and the expectancy from the 80s compared to where the market is at today.
   by Mister Common Sense - 2008-04-23
 » true, for the Wii

One thing's for sure, Nintendo doesn't have anything after Wii fit and Mario Kart. What else? Cheerleading? Wii ski? That's probably why they're overhyping them with one of the largest advertising budgets.

The PS3 and XBOX 360 have too many quality games coming out to list. Some are a ways off, but they will be so good it's worth it.


   Re: NomadHeath - 2008-04-23
 » Ugh, no sense no sense no sense ...

When will you ever learn.

Nintendo's adopting a new policy where they first MAKE the game, THEN announce it, so they're able to release it in a matter of a few months and not piss gamers off from delaying a title (something they learned from Smash Bros., and something Microsoft and Sony should probably learn as well).

Likewise, just because there ISN'T a game announced already for later this year, doesn't mean that a game may not actually come out in that time.

Now, however, if you just INSIST on making me make you look as stupid as you really are, well then, you have Disaster: Day of Crisis expected to be released sometime this summer if not fall, as well as Wii Motor Sports (which has an airplane demo already playable at shows), Wii Music, all along with the plethora of exclusive WiiWare titles that are going to sell like hotcakes. Now, if we wanna go into third party material, then you have even more damaging evidence against your moronically stupid arguments, such as The Force Unleashed with exclusive wii remote lightsaber controls, The Conduit (which has indeed gotten a publisher), Stephen Spielberg's Boom Blox, the Nintendo published N-Space project, Factor 5's project (rumored to be Kid Icarus) ... must I go on?

Just take your moronic fanboyism and leave this website. You have to be lowering your own IQ score with every post you make. Where is it at now? 80? Here's to 75!

   Re: The Obsidian - 2008-04-23
 » No not true for ANY one!!!

I wouldnt worry at all. This article is kinda useless i mean new titles that will come out this year will be announced at E3 and so one. Nintendo has already said that they have a new Kirby wii game and the wii animal crossing in development right now and as its been every other year more BIG titles will be announced for this year and abviously the future...that goes for all three of them.

   Re: Mister Common Sense - 2008-04-23
 » really?

"Nintendo's adopting a new policy where they first MAKE the game, THEN announce it, so they're able to release it in a matter of a few months and not piss gamers off from delaying a title (something they learned from Smash Bros., and something Microsoft and Sony should probably learn as well)."

Nintendo does that far more than the competition. The hype behind smash brothers was ridiculous, and that's what Nintendo wanted. Is that a classic Nintendo excuse for being lazy, just like the "big september suprise"?

http://wii.qj.net/Perrin-Kaplan-talks-about-the-idea-of-Bungie-made-games-and-Fils-Aime-s-surprise/pg/49/aid/105913

A major suprise promised for Wii owners, but only a BS excuse was delivered. Truth is, there is NOTHING significant coming to the Wii any time soon. Oh you disagree?

"Disaster: Day of Crisis expected to be released sometime this summer if not fall, as well as Wii Motor Sports (which has an airplane demo already playable at shows), Wii Music, all along with the plethora of exclusive WiiWare titles that are going to sell like hotcakes. Now, if we wanna go into third party material, then you have even more damaging evidence against your moronically stupid arguments, such as The Force Unleashed with exclusive wii remote lightsaber controls, The Conduit (which has indeed gotten a publisher), Stephen Spielberg's Boom Blox, the Nintendo published N-Space project, Factor 5's project (rumored to be Kid Icarus) ... must I go on?"

Yes, see if you can go on.

I'm waiting......

I'm not talking about crap that sells well like mario and sonic olympics. I mean real quality games. None of those games are quality. Only 5 exclusive games were listed in your long-winded no substance argument. Only 2 of those mediocre games can be expected this year.

Bubble wrap pop? Tetris? Are these the incredible wiiware titles you speak of? Just like everything Nintendo does, they're late by several years and are way behind the competition.

Optimistic thinking will not improve the Wii's horrible games. Nor will this "can do no wrong" attitude with Nintendo.

"Just take your moronic fanboyism and leave this website. You have to be lowering your own IQ score with every post you make. Where is it at now? 80? Here's to 75!"

Are you trying to be a comedian now? Real mature, just say possibly the stupidest "insult" ever just because you can't stand the truth about your overpriced and overhyped console.

   Re: NomadHeath - 2008-04-23
 » Okay, continuing...

Rock Band Special Edition, Alone in the Dark, Guitar Hero: Aerosmith, Brothers in Arms: Road to Hill 30 (using Unreal 3 Engine, no less!), Madden NFL 09, Rygar: The Battle of Argus, Samba de Amigo, de Blob, Deadly Creatures, TNA Impact, Ghostbusters, Sonic Unleashed, Face Breaker, Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Crystal Bearers, untilted Stray Bullet MMORPG.

Wow, I think I listed more games coming out for Wii than I did the first time. Hmm. So much for THAT stupid challenge of yours.

"Are you trying to be a comedian now? Real mature, just say possibly the stupidest "insult" ever just because you can't stand the truth about your overpriced and overhyped console. "

Well, I must be making some headway. The LAST person who needs to be calling ANYONE immature is your fanboy ass, No Sense. Overprice and overhyped console? You sure we're not talking XBox 360 here?

PPLLLEAAASSEEEE No Sense save your breath. Your stupid antics don't fly when someone, nay, ANYONE bothers to take time out of their day to put you in your place. And its not hard, AT ALL. Save yourself whatever little amount of humility you have and leave.
   by scarface_tha_second - 2008-04-23
 » ***** Analysts

MGS4, Little Big Planet, Gears of War 2, Ninja Gaiden 2, Spore, Killzone 2, SOCOM, Resistance, Haze....at least four of these games will go up above 3 million and at least 2 of them will go above 5.

   by tom189 - 2008-04-23
 » Three Words

Three Words

Little Big Planet

:)

I think 2008 isnt completely void of new good games. We will just have to wait and see

   by SparkWIzard - 2008-04-27
 » these analysts are full of it.

from what im reading sounds like a microsoft analyst.
halo 3 got old quick so it aint fresh.

lets not forget resistance 2, or haze, the agency, tekken 6, Disgea 3 and other great PS3 games wich are going to sell millions no doubt.

(but then agian a system that has multiple million sellers then a system with only one game wich everybody wanted to play before well it got old is better)

In terms of xbox 360 the only titles worth picking up this year are banjo 3, fable 2, gears 2.

and wii... it aint going down anytime soon so I wouldnt worry wii boys, and you got brawl and other games so enjoy.

good games don't need hype, there are good games that we just don't see coming down the road and we will probibly see plenty;)



QJ.NET Blog Network RSS Feeds
MyQJ Feed / PDA
MyQJ RSS / PDA
Blog of Blogs Feed / PDA
QJ.NET RSS / PDA
Gaming Consoles Feed / PDA
Nintendo DS RSS / PDA
PlayStation 3 RSS / PDA
PSP Updates RSS / PDA
Wii RSS / PDA
Xbox 360 RSS / PDA
PC Gaming Feed / PDA
Age of Conan RSS / PDA
Games for Windows RSS / PDA
MMORPG RSS / PDA
Tabula Rasa RSS / PDA
World of Warcraft RSS / PDA
Science Feed / PDA
Science RSS / PDA
Technology Feed / PDA
Apple RSS / PDA
Gadgets RSS / PDA
iPhone RSS / PDA
Mobile RSS / PDA
Photography RSS / PDA
Tech RSS / PDA
Add QJ.NET
Add to My Yahoo!
Google Reader Subscribe with Bloglines
Add  to your Kinja digest Subscribe in NewsGator Online
Subscribe with Pluck RSS reader Add 'www.qj.net' to Newsburst from CNET News.com
Subscribe with SearchFox RSS del.icio.us www.qj.net
Add to Technorati Favorite! Add to My AOL
furl! it Stumble for Treehugger!